Freedom of Movement for Workers from Central and Eastern Europe: Experiences in Ireland and Sweden

In 2004 the European Union (EU) gained ten new Member States. However in many of the old Member States there were increasing concerns about the implications of this particular enlargement. Not only did it represent a large increase in the Union's population; in eight of the ten countries the wage levels were substantially below the wage levels in the old Member States. As several governments feared mass immigration, "welfare tourism" and negative effects on their labour markets, transitional rules were included in the Accession Treaty with regard to the freedom of movement for workers from the Central and East European Member (CEE) States.Two years after this momentous step in the European integration process, SIEPS decided to examine the effects from the 2004 enlargement in the countries that opened their labour market to workers from the CEE Member States. The study attempts to provide as thorough as possible a picture of the post-enlargement experiences in Ireland and Sweden

EUROPEAN MIGRATION NETWORK. ANNUAL REPORT ON STATISTICS ON MIGRATION, ASYLUM AND RETURN: IRELAND, REFERENCE YEAR 2002

Up to the mid-1990s Ireland was traditionally a country of emigration. Since then it has undergone rapid economic expansion. The advent of a high rate of economic growth and a rapid fall in unemployment caused shortages at all skills levels across the Irish labour market which has resulted in significant inflows of migrants in recent years in search of work or asylum. Immigration policy in Ireland has developed mainly in response to satisfying the growing needs of the labour market

PRIVATE PENSIONS AND EQUITY IN IRELAND AND THE U.K. ESRI WP142. October 2001

The strong link between private pensions and employment status means that there is little interest in the equity of private pension arrangements since it is expected that inequality in earnings will be reproduced in inequality in pensions. Nevertheless, the equity of private pensions is an issue as governments in mainly English speaking OECD countries subsidise their provision through the tax system and governments in a number of EU countries are now considering this policy as a way of coping with increases in long-term pension costs due to ageing of their populations

When the Future is not what it used to be: Lessons from the Western European Experience to Forecasting Education and Training in Transition Economies

In an era of rapid technological change, information exchange, and emergence of knowledge-intensive industries it is critical to be able to identify the future skill needs of the labour market. Growing unemployment in EU member states and pre-accession countries in Eastern Europe combined with technological changes which make the skills of a significant number of workers obsolescent each year demand adequate knowledge of medium- and long-term demand for specific skills. Some EU members states have developed employment forecasting methods to identify future skill requirements which take account of the sectoral, occupational, and educational and training factors which influence supply and demand in the labour market for skills. A number of countries in Eastern Europe which are preparing to join the EU are interested in developing employment forecasting models that would provide them with similar information relating to skills. Taking account of the requirements of the Single European Market and increasing international mobility, it is desirable that the pre-accession countries should develop models which, if possible, are comparable with existing methods of forecasting training and qualification needs in existing member states of the EU. This task requires regular medium-term forecasts which will extend the time horizon of decision makers beyond the current economic cycle, be applicable to the whole economy, allow speedy adjustment to changing circumstances, and which will take account of relevant factors such as investment plans, output and labour productivity forecasts, and technological change. The objective of this paper is to provide a summary of existing methods and data sets used to forecast education and training needs in four members of the European Union, in order to motivate similar work in three pre-accession countries. We first provide a detailed account of the different approaches to forecast education and training needs in France, Germany, Ireland and The Netherlands. For each of these countries, we consider the labour market data on which employment forecasts are based and the current methods in use, examine how data reliability and accuracy of forecasts are dealt with, and discuss the dissemination and usage of forecast information generated by those systems. We then look at the same range of issues for three pre-accession Central European countries (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia.) The paper concludes by suggesting a number of needed actions in preparation for developing an approach to forecasting education and training needs in the three pre-accession countries.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39650/3/wp265.pd

EUROPEAN MIGRATION NETWORK. POLICY ANALYSIS REPORT ON ASYLUM AND MIGRATION: IRELAND, REFERENCE YEAR 2003 TO MID-2004

In the last ten years or so Ireland has changed from being a country of net emigration to being a country of net immigration. In the year to the end of April 1994 about 35,000 people left Ireland and about 30,000 people entered so that there was a net loss of population of nearly 5,000 people. In the year to the end of April 2004 about 18,000 people left and just over 50,000 people entered resulting in a net gain in population of almost 32,000 people. Over the same period the number of people who have sought asylum in Ireland under the 1951 Geneva Convention relating to the status of refugees has increased from 91 in 1993 to 7,900 in 2003

Segmented Labour Markets and Earnings in Ireland. ESRI Working Paper No. 75, April 1996

Human capital theory emphasizes differences among individuals as the determinants of the distribution of earnings: workers in low-wage jobs are those who have low productivity, because they have been unable or unwilling to obtain the skills necessary to improve their productivity and earnings. Dual labour market theory, on the other hand, sees the labour market as divided into distinct primary and secondary sectors, of "good" and "bad" jobs respectively, with different wage determination systems and with good jobs being rationed. More broadly, labour market segmentation theory sees the labour market as divided into distinct sectors systematically differentiating the job rewards achieved by comparable individuals. The ideas behind these segmentation theories have a long history, and inspired a substantial body of research in the 1970s, particularly in the USA (following Doeringer and Piere (1971). 1 After a brief eclipse following Cain's (1976) critique there has been a resurgence of interest in segmentation in the USA in the last decade, with the work of Dickens and Lang being particularly influential (Dickens and Lang 1985, 1993). Indeed some see dual labour market theory as having recently been integrated into the mainstream of labour market theory (Blackaby, Clark and Leslie 1995), though in our view this assessment is premature

Competitive and Segmented Labour Markets and Exclusion from Retirement Income. ESRI Working Paper No. 108, June 1999

Interest in the causes and consequences of low pay is, understandably., primarily focused on the mechanisms which bring about social exclusion and their immediate effects on inequality and poverty. There are, however, lifetime consequences of employment in low paying jobs which result in exclusion of certain categories of employees from employer provided occupational pension schemes. The effects of this exclusion will not be felt by individuals in these groups until it is impossible, or too late, for them to make their own pension arrangements. In these circumstances a significant minority of employees who work in low paid jobs may be almost totally dependent on the State for an income during old age. If the social exclusion which many of them suffer during their working lifetime is not to continue into old age it is critical that the State should put in place arrangements, either in its own pension schemes or through private schemes, which will provide an adequate income for the elderly

When the Future is not what it used to be: Lessons from the Western European Experience to Forecasting Education and Training in Transition Economies

In an era of rapid technological change, information exchange, and emergence of knowledge-intensive industries it is critical to be able to identify the future skill needs of the labour market. Growing unemployment in EU member states and pre-accession countries in Eastern Europe combined with technological changes which make the skills of a significant number of workers obsolescent each year demand adequate knowledge of medium- and long-term demand for specific skills. Some EU members states have developed employment forecasting methods to identify future skill requirements which take account of the sectoral, occupational, and educational and training factors which influence supply and demand in the labour market for skills. A number of countries in Eastern Europe which are preparing to join the EU are interested in developing employment forecasting models that would provide them with similar information relating to skills. Taking account of the requirements of the Single European Market and increasing international mobility, it is desirable that the pre-accession countries should develop models which, if possible, are comparable with existing methods of forecasting training and qualification needs in existing member states of the EU. This task requires regular medium-term forecasts which will extend the time horizon of decision makers beyond the current economic cycle, be applicable to the whole economy, allow speedy adjustment to changing circumstances, and which will take account of relevant factors such as investment plans, output and labour productivity forecasts, and technological change. The objective of this paper is to provide a summary of existing methods and data sets used to forecast education and training needs in four members of the European Union, in order to motivate similar work in three pre-accession countries. We first provide a detailed account of the different approaches to forecast education and training needs in France, Germany, Ireland and The Netherlands. For each of these countries, we consider the labour market data on which employment forecasts are based and the current methods in use, examine how data reliability and accuracy of forecasts are dealt with, and discuss the dissemination and usage of forecast information generated by those systems. We then look at the same range of issues for three pre-accession Central European countries (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia.) The paper concludes by suggesting a number of needed actions in preparation for developing an approach to forecasting education and training needs in the three pre-accession countries.employment forecasting, education and training needs forecasting, labor market, transition